Mean electricity prime costs for conventional power stations (yellow), the renewable energies mix (blue) and the total of all power generating plants (green).
(Source: BMU study, Figure. 7.13; Scenario 2011 A for energy price development according to price path A)
"The transformation of the energy system is feasible and pays off". That is the main conclusion of a fundamental study commissioned by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) on the expansion of renewable energies in Germany that was published at the end of March. The study was conducted by DLR (Stuttgart), Fraunhofer IWES (Kassel) and IfnE (Teltow).
The findings on the economic effects of the transformation are: "Renewable energies are currently still more expensive than coal, oil and gas. However, while the prices of coal, oil and gas are likely to continue to rise in future, renewables will become ever cheaper." That means investment here will quickly and thoroughly pay off - also in terms of saving resources and protecting the environment.
In a scenario "that fully reflects the sub-goals of the federal government"s energy policy resulting from the overall goal of reducing greenhouse gases by 80% by 2050 (compared to 1990)", the price development shows that the initially high investments will quickly produce an economic "yield" (see BMU graph):
The prime costs of conventional power stations are increasing steadily and consistently. The mean generation costs of renewable energies in the development phase are much higher and increase more steeply, but already, in 2012, they have reached their peak and will fall significantly. From 2027 they will be lower than the costs for conventional energy. From then onwards the mean costs will also decline due to the growing share of renewables in the energy supply mix - 2010: 17%; 2027: 50%; 2050: 85% -; from around 2040 they will be lower than today.
Summing up, the main conclusion of the study is that in all scenarios the political goals of expanding renewable energies will definitely be achieved if "the basic principle of the priority of renewable energies remains largely in place unchanged". Ubbo de Witt of the Projekt group of companies says: "The government must demonstrate dependability here. Market structures are changing radically within a short time. Medium-sized, flexible companies have driven the establishment, further development and adjustment of the market. It is important to ensure this development does not stall. As the BMU study shows, the Renewable Energies Law (EEG) is and remains the most effective instrument for promoting the expansion of renewables in the electricity sector!".
PDF of the study (in German):
Langfristszenarien und Strategien für den Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energien in Deutschland bei Berücksichtigung der Entwicklung in Europa und global